4 Reasons Why the iPad Will Be A Huge Success and One Reason Why It May Not

Pundits are a funny lot, especially when it comes to Apple. They simply don't get it. They obsess on a single new feature that proves an Apple product will fail. When the iPod came out it was too expensive, and it didn't have Wi-Fi. When the iPhone came out it didn't have—gasp—3G. Or pundits fall back on bringing up Apple products that haven't been successful, like the Newton (way ahead of its time) or the Cube (too expensive, although it did presage the very successful Mac Mini).

So too with the iPad. It doesn't have a camera! Or, my favorite, it's just a big iPod Touch (as if that is horrible thing, even though it's much more than that). Let us take a historical view of the original Macintosh, the iPod and the iPhone and look at why the iPad will be a huge success, and the one reason why it may not.

1. It Is the Platform, Stupid

The iPad is just a vessel for whatever other people bring to the table. In this case, the iPad is way ahead of the iPhone—140,000 Applications ahead to be specific. The now oft-quoted statement, "There is an app for that," is very true for the iPhone, and it will be true for the iPad out of the gate.

But for the iPad this is really just the beginning. Once developers start writing applications for iPad's form factor expect an explosion of use cases for this device previously thought unimaginable. In education, medicine, and all sorts of business applications the iPad will become the base platform for Tablet computing. Forgoing the complexity of the Windows Tablet operating system and powered by a simple yet powerful SDK the iPad will become the dominant Tablet device across a wide swath of businesses. Applications will be written by developers that will be as innovative, if not more innovative than the iPad itself. 

This platform will go far beyond software into hardware applications. Go to pretty much any hotel these days and it will probably have a clock radio with an iPod/iPhone dock (never seen a Zune dock, actually, I don't know anyone who owns a Zune). Think about that for a moment, the iPod is so dominant that hotels take it for granted a traveller will have one. Of course this dock will also probably work with the iPad but this is just the beginning. Look for companies to leverage the iPad for multiple touch displays, kiosks, cars, etc. For $499 any entrepreneur has world-class hardware and an operating system for which they can write powerful applications.

The iPad is a vessel.

2. The iTunes Ecosystem

iTunes has become the operating system of content distribution. Some have argued that this has lead to a bloated application, and indeed in certain areas it has. What began as something to play music has become the place to buy music, TV shows, movies and now applications. It is also the place you can rent content, listen to podcasts and more. The iPad, because it ties into the iTunes system brings that all-powerful iTunes username and password to the table. The iPad has had its wheels greased by the iPod and iPhone, whose users made iTunes the dominant application it is. People are used to it and like it. And by people I don't just mean end consumers I mean content creators. Whether it is a movie studio, publishing house, or everyday blogger like myself, iTunes is the way to distribute content.

3. It Meets a Large Majority of Computing Needs

In many ways the iPhone has become my computer of choice. I read my email on it, surf the web, read (Kindle) books, send text messages, consume FaceBook and Twitter and watch rental movies on flights. I do all this without a keyboard (as an aside I can now type faster on my iPhone than I can on a BlackBerry). Of course the only limitation the iPhone really has is its screen size. This doesn't just impact how much I can read at one time but also the kind of applications that can be written for it.

Out of the box the iPad meets a large majority of computing needs and is a perfect travel companion. It meets the use case of the NetBook (a cheap, 2nd or 3rd computer) head-on and takes it to the next level. Instead of cheap hardware you get Apple hardware. Instead of an overly complex operating system and UI for the screen-size you get one that is optimized. This combination or simple hardware, and a simple yet powerful operating system gives a device that will meet the majority of our computing needs when we are away from our primary machine. Indeed, I imagine that for many people it will become the device they use more than their computer.

4. It is No Longer a One-Device World

Because I'm a bit of a technology wonk I am probably the exception to the rule, regarding the number of computers or devices in my home, don't ask my wife about my Mac collection...But even those, not as interested in technology as I, have a much greater amount of computer screens than they used to. We all have our work machines, and our home machines. Maybe a laptop thrown in there and an iPhone or iPod Touch (or BlackBerry or Droid). And we may also have a GPS unit in our car, a Kindle, and a PS3. You get the point. We live in a multiple-device world and for now it appears like things are only to expand before they contract as more and more devices become computers and are internet enabled. The iPad isn't necassirly replacing anything, it is additive. We may now listen to music on it but we will still have iPods and use those too. This shift in consumer behavior means that Apple doesn't have to crush another category (although I think the Kindle is done as are NetBooks) to win, it just has to satisfy its primary use case.

And now, without further ado, the one reason why the iPad may not succeed:

1. Competition, also Known As Copycats

One of the pitfalls of comparing the iPad to the Mac, the iPod, or the iPhone is that the device categories were and are so different. The Mac created the category of personal computer (which Microsoft cleverly ran with). The iPod came to being when there were already other mp3 devices available, they just all sucked, and didn't have a good software/hardware tie-in. And the iPhone came to life in a very mature mobile marketplace and still, marketshare-wise, has catching up to do.

The iPad is a combination of the Mac and iPod; some tablet devices do exist (the Kindle and the Windows Tablet) but they have never really taken off in a substantial way. The difference for the iPad is that the market, both supply-side and consumer-side is much more mature. This means that catching up to the iPad will be measured in months or a couple-of-years vs. a decade. Let us look at some of the threats:

I like to call Google Nexus One, which sold a whopping 80,000 units in month one, Google's iPhone, because it is. It is powered by Google's Android operating system  but ostensibly it is an iPhone. It is to the iPhone what Windows 3.1 was to the Mac. (To be fair it is more like Windows 95...a little more polished). BlackBerry now has the Storm, aka BlackBerry's iPhone, and any number of competitors have followed along. 

I suspect that the same thing will happen in the iPad, or Tablet space. Google will have a gPad powered by their Chrome operating system. Microsoft will surely do something in this space too, although I suspect it won't be anything other than Windows 7 running on a Slate. The problem for Apple is that Windows 7 is the first iteration of Windows that can stand up to the Macintosh operating system; it isn't that bad. Indeed Windows 7 is pretty good and because Microsoft is the dominant operating system Microsoft has a huge advantage over Apple in creating a device that can interface with the machine most people use.

And Amazon will not sit still, probably creating some kind of App store, a color Kindle, as well as a music player.

Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all strong threats to the iPad.

So there you have it, four reasons why the iPad will be a huge success and one reason why it may not. What do you think? Are their other reasons for or against the iPad? Have at it below.